The Impact of Rising Interest Rates on Global Economic Growth

The impact of rising interest rates on global economic growth is very significant and complex. An increase in interest rates, which usually occurs when the central bank tries to control inflation, can trigger various effects that spread throughout the economy, both locally and internationally. One of the main impacts of rising interest rates is a reduction in consumption and investment. When interest rates rise, borrowing costs become more expensive, which makes individuals and companies more cautious about spending. For example, many families may delay purchasing a home or vehicle due to higher mortgages. This can reduce aggregate demand, which in turn slows economic growth. Companies also felt the direct impact of higher borrowing costs. With rising interest rates, companies are hesitant to take risks in expanding or making new capital investments. The decision to take on debt becomes more difficult, which can hinder innovation and efficiency in the long term. If many companies around the world reduce investment, then global economic growth could slow substantially. Furthermore, rising interest rates can affect currency exchange rates. When interest rates in a country increase, foreign investors tend to be interested in placing their capital in that country to get better returns. This increases demand for the local currency, thereby strengthening the exchange rate. However, the impact on developing countries can be detrimental, as a strong currency can make exported goods more expensive on international markets, reducing competitiveness and slowing economic growth. However, not all countries feel the same impact. Countries that have debt in local currency may be able to cope with rising interest rates relatively better than countries that have debt in foreign currency. However, countries with weaker economies could face a debt crisis when interest rates rise, adding to the risk of recession. The social impact is also no less important. When interest rates rise, people on fixed incomes, such as retirees, may benefit from higher returns on their savings. However, for those who depend on debt to meet daily needs, such as a home loan or credit card, the financial burden can become heavier, affecting quality of life. Additionally, rising interest rates tend to slow down the rate of bank lending and credit. A decline in credit availability could hinder the growth of the small business sector, which is an important driver of the global economy. With the small business sector under pressure, job creation and innovation are also at risk of decline. Overall, the impact of rising interest rates on global economic growth involves the interaction of various factors that influence each other. Changes in monetary policy can have far-reaching consequences, contribute to economic uncertainty, and in the long term create challenges for the global economy. Central banks must consider all these factors when making decisions regarding interest rates to ensure sustainable growth.